The dangerous fantasy of a hard Brexit.

The concept that the United Kingdom could withdraw from the European Union in one fell swoop, that we could suddenly and unconditionally guillotine our contractual relationship with the rest of the Union, was always utter fantasy.

This was the dream world put forward by the arch-Brexiteers though, in all earnest. David Davis, Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove; all were in this camp of high illusionists that enspelled a nation.

I know that there are many people who genuinely believe it is in the UK’s best interests to leave the EU. Yet, there can also be no doubt that the Leave campaign was not keen to delineate how challenging, or at least lengthy and long winded, the process of leaving the Union would be in reality, or what the implications and consequences would be for our people.

The revealing of the draft Withdrawal Agreement has thrown all this deceitful tommyrot into sharp relief. In my view, as someone who has studied the Union’s legal system and its relationship to the UK in some detail, there was ultimately no avoiding the intricate and lengthy process that has been arrived at. Some of the details might have been different but this general and difficult situation was always going to accompany the UK’s departure from the EU. Our legal, political and economic systems are so entwined with the Union’s after nearly fifty years of membership that this was always going to be the case.

It is the way in which Boris Johnson and the others have demanded the fantasy style hard Brexit but then backed away from taking the lead to implement it that is so galling. Boris Johnson, it is hard to remember now, was one of the front runners to become Prime Minister after David Cameron fell on his sword. He has been one of the sternest critics of Theresa May’s approach; yet at one point, he could have grasped the pinnacle of power to ensure the vision he constantly berates us with actually came to be. Baulking, he perhaps had the insight to realise he lacked the discipline and close attention for the role. Instead of seizing the leadership, he gave in and skulked away like a shamefully dirty puppy.

Where was his fire when he could have seized Downing Street, become the Prime Minister and made his hard Brexit leap from the realm of abstraction to political reality? This, from someone who only a few years ago was a faithful admirer of the European Union and all it stood for. He later gave up being Foreign Minister as well, determined to snipe from the side lines rather than have the honour and wherewithal to see the Brexit project through to its tedious conclusion. Boris Johnson’s ascension to the Prime Minister’s mantle cannot, in any circumstances, happen.

I applaud the passion and love for our country that this crisis has revealed, whichever route we take. Whether we are in or out, I still believe wholeheartedly that our country has a wonderful future.

Yet there is one option, the best option, which continues to offer the United Kingdom the greatest future, one that has always persisted throughout this dispiriting debacle. A way that has endured for nearly fifty years and ensured our people, our nation prevails.

Remain.

The Prime Minister’s Duplicity

We all remember how little Theresa May involved herself in the referendum. Whilst ultimately and rather late in the day she sidled up with Remain, at no time could anyone justifiably suggest she was an ardent, passionate campaigner.

She was the bat in the battle between the birds and the beasts – neither one thing or the other. She was the Reluctant Remainer, the Eurosceptic Europhile who could never seem to make up her mind where her loyalties lay and, perhaps more importantly, was never able to project a clear, bold message about this to the electorate. She waited in the wings, lurking patiently like a shadow for others to stand their ground in the harsh daylight of the debate.  Her reticence in the most important political decision for the UK in the 21st Century so far spoke most loudly for her.

And she profited from this. The Referendum was won by Leave in a result that is described as “the slimmest of margins” when a similar outcome happens in Turkey.  As the polls closed, not even Nigel Farage thought Leave would win; he spoke about the battle going on despite a likely Leave defeat. After the vote, David Cameron swiftly fell on his sword, breaching previous assurances that he would not do so in the event of a loss by Remain. Yet May seemed entirely invulnerable compared to her Prime Minister due to her negligible participation in the campaign.

A Conservative leadership contest then ensued.  Yet again, May hung back, watching carefully from her belfry, whilst other candidates postured and preened.  As they all fell away in error in one way or another, she silently swept on, ultimately winning the contest by default through lack of a rival. A Zen like, negatively successful quality seemed to attach to her. Issues and policies were irrelevant; she succeeded because others failed. She then glided quietly into place as the new Prime Minister.

Interestingly, despite being a Remainer prior to the referendum and therefore, albeit half-heartedly, supporting the U.K.’s membership of the European Union, since becoming Prime Minister she has swung round to being happy to accept a hard Brexit. It is a total switch around from her position less than a year ago.

After being crowned Prime Minister, May repeatedly and firmly stated that there wasn’t going to be a general election. Not until 2020 of course, in accordance with the Fixed-Term Parliament Act’s requirement of a five year gap following the general election of 2015.  Her reasons were that the government needed to concentrate on Brexit and wanted to build up support to “win big” in 2020. What was needed was time to get the Brexit deal right; that was the priority. There was, she repeatedly stated, to be no general election now whilst this took place.

Yet a walking holiday in Wales seems to have been the setting for her to completely turn about; to stop mid-wingbeat and head back the other way. Despite everything she had said before, on Tuesday 18th April she announced we would have another general election on 8th June, just over two years since the last one, the shortest time between elections for over forty years.

The picture that emerges is of a purely political personality, who is interested in only power. Her values, it seems, must be subordinate to opportunity. She plays politics like a game and is happy to act in a way entirely opposite to previous, recent statements. It is impossible to believe anything she says.

Is this who we really want running the country?

Vote Liberal Democrat.

Brexit and the UK’s Future - some thoughts.

A key lesson from the general election of 2015 and the recent Brexit referendum is how wrong even the most experienced and knowledgeable experts can be in predicting the future. At the 2015 election, the pundits had suggested it was going to be very close and there was much speculation about a hung Parliament and the technicalities that might arise as a result. In the end, within about ten minutes of the polls closing, the exit polls strongly hinted at a win for the Conservatives and ultimately the magnitude of their victory was a surprise to many people and not something that the pollsters had contemplated.

Similarly, the recent vote to leave the European Union has been something of a shock to many people. The predictions before the result was announced were that Remain would win and no one, not even Nigel Farage, seemed to think Leave would be victorious. Again, predictive power failed to select the right result.

Nevertheless, predicting future events is useful as it at least gives you some ideas about what might happen and the implications that might arise. It’s also an interesting exercise; like writing an alternative history of the future.

So, with these disclaimers in mind, here are some thoughts on the future course of events given the enormous implications of the Brexit vote.

1. Now that we have voted, we are out. It is only a question of time. There isn’t going to be any second referendum. There is no precedent for a government ignoring or not implementing the result of a referendum. Whilst the scale of the victory is not large, it is clear and so professional politicians will be working to put into practise.

2. Now that we’ve decided, the EU will want us out as soon as possible. We’ve humiliated them and our vote is the single most serious challenge to the EU’s existence that it has ever faced. The EU leaders have already referred to wanting the period of uncertainty created by our exit to be as short as possible. More painfully, our vote will only inflame the Euro-scepticism lurking in other member States and the longer this goes on, the greater this effect will be. The EU will put the UK under increasing pressure to get on with it and activate Article 50. The threat they can start intimating is that the longer this goes on, the less attractive the deal the UK will get on leaving. The UK does not have a lot of negotiating strength here. We may be an important trading partner of the EU even when out of it, but we have threatened their very existence. The only way they have to contain our contagious Euro-scepticism is to get rid of us as soon as they can.

3. The UK seems to take the view that we can take our time with all of us, that there is no rush. This is not the way the EU will see it. It is not just a question of what the UK wants anymore. The 27 other member States are going to be working to their own agenda and we are now just a problem to them that needs to be resolved.

4. Similarly, the EU will be in no mood to grant us any kind of favours or kindness on our way out. We have stuck our fingers up at them – now they will return the gesture.

5. The negotiations to leave will be complicated and heavy going. EU law is inextricably bound up in our own domestic legislation. At this stage it is part and parcel of how we as a country operate. Withdrawing from all that is a complex task and will require the employment of a large number of civil servants and government resources. A whole new section of government will have to be created to accomplish this task. The expense of this will lessen any possible savings from leaving the EU for some time.

6. Leaving the EU seriously undermines the UK’s position on the world stage. Our most important international role has been bringing the EU and the USA, the two major components of Euro-Atlantic relations, together. Our role as the Euro-Atlantic “bridge” could have been an exciting and important future for the UK in which our diplomatic significance far outstrips our economic or military contribution. That’s gone. Instead, we will be a disappointment to both and of lessening interest to all concerned.

7. We will be of far less interest and significance to the Americans diplomatically as a result. We’re no longer bringing anything as directly useful to the table. The USA will turn even more to the Pacific, especially as China asserts itself more and more in that arena.

8. Russia and China will see this as a key weakness for the West. We have fractured an important element of the security structure of the West. NATO is the military structure but the EU has always played an important civic component of the structure involved in keeping us all together as an alliance. Before Brexit, the current leader of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, was very clear that the UK should remain in the EU. He has no axe to grind in this issue; he was speaking purely from the point of view of maximising NATO strength. In these times of increased Russian aggression, this is far and away the single most important point. We have weakened ourselves.