Wednesday 29 June 2016

A guess at our Brexit future

Predicting the future is an exercise generally in getting everything wrong, but it is worth trying as a way of considering what might happen and what the implications might be. With that disclaimer, here are some ideas:
July 2016
Jeremy Corbyn eventually resigns after an extraordinary amount of pressure is put on him by the Parliamentary Labour Party.
August 2016
After a highly charged and bruising leadership contest, Tom Watson is elected by its membership as leader of the Labour party.
September 2016
After a highly charged and bruising leadership contest, Boris Johnson is chosen by the Conservative party to be its leader. His charisma and success in the referendum swing the balance, although Theresa May is a very close second place.
December 2016
Boris sends a letter to the European Council which amounts to the Article 50 notice for the UK to leave the European Union. By this point, it is clear the EU is completely fed up with the UK. Although he would prefer to delay doing so further, it is clear the EU will make the "departure deal" worse for the UK if there is any additional procrastination.
February 2017
Prime Minister Boris calls for a general election, earlier than required under the fixed term legislation. A motion for a general election is passed by the House of Commons due to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 but this succeeds without difficulty as due to the state of national politics, everyone agrees this is needed.
April 2017
Prime Minister Boris wins the general election. Labour is very weak and the SNP enhance their hold in Scotland. UKIP now has two seats and the Greens lose theirs in Brighton. PM Boris is popular with many following his successful Brexit campaign.
Over the next year, interest rates rise slowly. Some companies relocate from the UK, but not as many as might be feared. This is principally due to London's power as a centre for finance and commerce throughout the world. Unemployment rises and the economy weakens.
This might be characterised as a "phoney war" period as we are still in the EU despite negotiations continuing for us to leave it.
December 2018
With increasing threats from other countries that they will leave the EU, especially Austria, the EU is putting more and more pressure on the UK to conclude the difficult and protracted negotiations for it to leave the EU.
Nevertheless, the EU grants the UK a further six month extension as the UK markets are still an important customer for the EU.
Late 2019
Eventually the UK formally and legally withdraws from membership of the EU. It now has a rather unique trade agreement with the EU. It still has access to the single market, but at an increased cost and this is offset by some acceptance of free movement of workers. Many of the most strident Leave voters are dismayed at this betrayal, as they see it, and UKIP is still as vociferous as ever. Even this level of involvement with Europe is unacceptable to many.
The UK has in the meantime been able to enter into further trade agreements and arrangements with many other nations and in particular has developed more trade links with China and India, the two fastest growing economies in the world. Although it has left the EU, the UK has embraced further globalisation through these links.
Over the following years, the changes to the UK economy have lead the richer parts of the UK to become richer and the poorer even worse. This, coupled with the sense of betrayal over the results of Brexit, make Boris very unpopular. The work force is more flexible due to the reduction of worker's rights.
April 2022
The Conservatives lose this general election and the Labour leader, Tom Watson, becomes Prime Minister. The SNP have held their hold on Scotland, though this has been reduced.
Tom Watson agrees to a further Scottish referendum with Nicola Sturgeon. This time, the vote is a win for the nationalists and Scotland becomes an independent nation. The kingdom of Scotland (as they still retain the Monarchy) applies to become a member of the European Union.
In the following years, Northern Ireland has a similar referendum and becomes unified with the Republic of Ireland. England and Wales retain the name of the United Kingdom.

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