Tuesday 4 December 2018

More guesses at our Brexit future..

Predicting the future is an exercise generally in getting everything wrong, but it is worth trying as a way of considering what might happen and what the implications might be.

A possible future Brexit timeline

December 2018
In an unprecented development, the government is held to be in contempt.
The Prime Minister's deal is not approved by Parliament, the debacle over the legal advice being the last straw for some Tory MPs who might otherwise have supported her.

January 2019
Theresa May decides to try going back to the EU to renegotiate.
The EU are not really interested, having already made what they consider the most appropriate deal. But they make some minor concessions which amount to tinkering at the edges.

February 2019
Theresa May tries presenting this new deal to Parliament, but it is not approved due to the Prime Minister's weakened position. There is no more time to renegotiate - the Article 50 notice period expires on 29th March 2019.
The Prime Minister requests an extension to the Article 50 notice period from the EU. The EU grants a six month extension.
Labour demands a general election.

April 2019
Despite granting the UK extra time, the EU has no intention of coming up with a Withdrawal Agreement that is substantially different from the one that had been approved by them in November 2018. The renegotiations stall as a result.

July 2019
Over the summer, huge discontent arises in the UK about the country's situation and this is not helped by US President Trump's disinterest in reaching a trade agreement with the UK once it has left the EU. His domestic political problems are all consuming.

August 2019
The government realises that any Withdrawal Agreement that is acceptable to the EU is not going to get approval from Parliament. As a result, the government increases preparation for the UK to leave the EU without an agreement.

29th September 2019
The UK exits the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement - the no deal Brexit. Our trade is regulated under World Trade Organisation rules.

April 2020
Theresa May resigns as Prime Minister, having overseen the chaotic departure from the EU, the single greatest crisis the UK has experienced since World War Two.

May 2020
After a brief leadership contest, Michael Gove is selected as the new leader of the Conservative party and becomes the new Prime Minister.

January 2021
Prime Minister Gove calls for a general election in late April 2021. The Labour opposition are delighted and provide the appropriate approval required by the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

April 2021
Prime Minister Gove loses the election and Jeremy Corbyn is elected Prime Minister.

February 2022
The Scottish Government seizes its moment and announces that a referendum on independence will be held in August 2023. Prime Minister Corbyn is content for this to go ahead, although he campaigns for the union to remain intact.

August 2023
Scottish nationalists succeed this time with an independence vote. The Scottish government prepares for UKexit and negotiations commence with the UK government for Scotland's withdrawal from the Union.

2024
Scotland leaves the United Kingdom and pressure grows in Northern Ireland for independence from the rest of the UK.

2025
The Republic of Scotland begins accession talks with the European Union.

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