More guesses at our Brexit future..

Predicting the future is an exercise generally in getting everything wrong, but it is worth trying as a way of considering what might happen and what the implications might be.

A possible future Brexit timeline

December 2018

In an unprecented development, the government is held to be in contempt.

The Prime Minister's deal is not approved by Parliament, the debacle over the legal advice being the last straw for some Tory MPs who might otherwise have supported her.

January 2019

Theresa May decides to try going back to the EU to renegotiate.

The EU are not really interested, having already made what they consider the most appropriate deal. But they make some minor concessions which amount to tinkering at the edges.

February 2019

Theresa May tries presenting this new deal to Parliament, but it is not approved due to the Prime Minister's weakened position. There is no more time to renegotiate - the Article 50 notice period expires on 29th March 2019.

The Prime Minister requests an extension to the Article 50 notice period from the EU. The EU grants a six month extension.

Labour demands a general election.

April 2019

Despite granting the UK extra time, the EU has no intention of coming up with a Withdrawal Agreement that is substantially different from the one that had been approved by them in November 2018. The renegotiations stall as a result.

July 2019

Over the summer, huge discontent arises in the UK about the country's situation and this is not helped by US President Trump's disinterest in reaching a trade agreement with the UK once it has left the EU. His domestic political problems are all consuming.

August 2019

The government realises that any Withdrawal Agreement that is acceptable to the EU is not going to get approval from Parliament. As a result, the government increases preparation for the UK to leave the EU without an agreement.

29th September 2019

The UK exits the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement - the no deal Brexit. Our trade is regulated under World Trade Organisation rules.

April 2020

Theresa May resigns as Prime Minister, having overseen the chaotic departure from the EU, the single greatest crisis the UK has experienced since World War Two.

May 2020

After a brief leadership contest, Michael Gove is selected as the new leader of the Conservative party and becomes the new Prime Minister.

January 2021

Prime Minister Gove calls for a general election in late April 2021. The Labour opposition are delighted and provide the appropriate approval required by the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

April 2021

Prime Minister Gove loses the election and Jeremy Corbyn is elected Prime Minister.

February 2022

The Scottish Government seizes its moment and announces that a referendum on independence will be held in August 2023. Prime Minister Corbyn is content for this to go ahead, although he campaigns for the union to remain intact.

August 2023

Scottish nationalists succeed this time with an independence vote. The Scottish government prepares for UKexit and negotiations commence with the UK government for Scotland's withdrawal from the Union.

2024

Scotland leaves the United Kingdom and pressure grows in Northern Ireland for independence from the rest of the UK.

2025

The Republic of Scotland begins accession talks with the European Union.

The dangerous fantasy of a hard Brexit.

The concept that the United Kingdom could withdraw from the European Union in one fell swoop, that we could suddenly and unconditionally guillotine our contractual relationship with the rest of the Union, was always utter fantasy.

This was the dream world put forward by the arch-Brexiteers though, in all earnest. David Davis, Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove; all were in this camp of high illusionists that enspelled a nation.

I know that there are many people who genuinely believe it is in the UK’s best interests to leave the EU. Yet, there can also be no doubt that the Leave campaign was not keen to delineate how challenging, or at least lengthy and long winded, the process of leaving the Union would be in reality, or what the implications and consequences would be for our people.

The revealing of the draft Withdrawal Agreement has thrown all this deceitful tommyrot into sharp relief. In my view, as someone who has studied the Union’s legal system and its relationship to the UK in some detail, there was ultimately no avoiding the intricate and lengthy process that has been arrived at. Some of the details might have been different but this general and difficult situation was always going to accompany the UK’s departure from the EU. Our legal, political and economic systems are so entwined with the Union’s after nearly fifty years of membership that this was always going to be the case.

It is the way in which Boris Johnson and the others have demanded the fantasy style hard Brexit but then backed away from taking the lead to implement it that is so galling. Boris Johnson, it is hard to remember now, was one of the front runners to become Prime Minister after David Cameron fell on his sword. He has been one of the sternest critics of Theresa May’s approach; yet at one point, he could have grasped the pinnacle of power to ensure the vision he constantly berates us with actually came to be. Baulking, he perhaps had the insight to realise he lacked the discipline and close attention for the role. Instead of seizing the leadership, he gave in and skulked away like a shamefully dirty puppy.

Where was his fire when he could have seized Downing Street, become the Prime Minister and made his hard Brexit leap from the realm of abstraction to political reality? This, from someone who only a few years ago was a faithful admirer of the European Union and all it stood for. He later gave up being Foreign Minister as well, determined to snipe from the side lines rather than have the honour and wherewithal to see the Brexit project through to its tedious conclusion. Boris Johnson’s ascension to the Prime Minister’s mantle cannot, in any circumstances, happen.

I applaud the passion and love for our country that this crisis has revealed, whichever route we take. Whether we are in or out, I still believe wholeheartedly that our country has a wonderful future.

Yet there is one option, the best option, which continues to offer the United Kingdom the greatest future, one that has always persisted throughout this dispiriting debacle. A way that has endured for nearly fifty years and ensured our people, our nation prevails.

Remain.