A key lesson from the general election of 2015 and the recent Brexit referendum is how wrong even the most experienced and knowledgeable experts can be in predicting the future. At the 2015 election, the pundits had suggested it was going to be very close and there was much speculation about a hung Parliament and the technicalities that might arise as a result. In the end, within about ten minutes of the polls closing, the exit polls strongly hinted at a win for the Conservatives and ultimately the magnitude of their victory was a surprise to many people and not something that the pollsters had contemplated.
Similarly, the recent vote to leave the European Union has been something of a shock to many people. The predictions before the result was announced were that Remain would win and no one, not even Nigel Farage, seemed to think Leave would be victorious. Again, predictive power failed to select the right result.
Nevertheless, predicting future events is useful as it at least gives you some ideas about what might happen and the implications that might arise. It’s also an interesting exercise; like writing an alternative history of the future.
So, with these disclaimers in mind, here are some thoughts on the future course of events given the enormous implications of the Brexit vote.
1. Now that we have voted, we are out. It is only a question of time. There isn’t going to be any second referendum. There is no precedent for a government ignoring or not implementing the result of a referendum. Whilst the scale of the victory is not large, it is clear and so professional politicians will be working to put into practise.
2. Now that we’ve decided, the EU will want us out as soon as possible. We’ve humiliated them and our vote is the single most serious challenge to the EU’s existence that it has ever faced. The EU leaders have already referred to wanting the period of uncertainty created by our exit to be as short as possible. More painfully, our vote will only inflame the Euro-scepticism lurking in other member States and the longer this goes on, the greater this effect will be. The EU will put the UK under increasing pressure to get on with it and activate Article 50. The threat they can start intimating is that the longer this goes on, the less attractive the deal the UK will get on leaving. The UK does not have a lot of negotiating strength here. We may be an important trading partner of the EU even when out of it, but we have threatened their very existence. The only way they have to contain our contagious Euro-scepticism is to get rid of us as soon as they can.
3. The UK seems to take the view that we can take our time with all of us, that there is no rush. This is not the way the EU will see it. It is not just a question of what the UK wants anymore. The 27 other member States are going to be working to their own agenda and we are now just a problem to them that needs to be resolved.
4. Similarly, the EU will be in no mood to grant us any kind of favours or kindness on our way out. We have stuck our fingers up at them – now they will return the gesture.
5. The negotiations to leave will be complicated and heavy going. EU law is inextricably bound up in our own domestic legislation. At this stage it is part and parcel of how we as a country operate. Withdrawing from all that is a complex task and will require the employment of a large number of civil servants and government resources. A whole new section of government will have to be created to accomplish this task. The expense of this will lessen any possible savings from leaving the EU for some time.
6. Leaving the EU seriously undermines the UK’s position on the world stage. Our most important international role has been bringing the EU and the USA, the two major components of Euro-Atlantic relations, together. Our role as the Euro-Atlantic “bridge” could have been an exciting and important future for the UK in which our diplomatic significance far outstrips our economic or military contribution. That’s gone. Instead, we will be a disappointment to both and of lessening interest to all concerned.
7. We will be of far less interest and significance to the Americans diplomatically as a result. We’re no longer bringing anything as directly useful to the table. The USA will turn even more to the Pacific, especially as China asserts itself more and more in that arena.
8. Russia and China will see this as a key weakness for the West. We have fractured an important element of the security structure of the West. NATO is the military structure but the EU has always played an important civic component of the structure involved in keeping us all together as an alliance. Before Brexit, the current leader of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, was very clear that the UK should remain in the EU. He has no axe to grind in this issue; he was speaking purely from the point of view of maximising NATO strength. In these times of increased Russian aggression, this is far and away the single most important point. We have weakened ourselves.
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